Ep 89 - Which ATAR Calculator Should You Use?
Can you predict your ATAR using an ATAR calculator? And which ATAR calculator is the most accurate?
Once VCE exams are over, many students turn their attention to their VTAC preference list and start wondering what ATAR they might receive.
A quick Google search will give you plenty of ATAR calculators claiming to help you predict your result. But how accurate are they really?
And, more importantly, should you use an ATAR calculator when you're deciding which courses to put on your VTAC preference list?
In this episode of Course and Career Chat, I explain why predicting your ATAR is much harder than it might seem, why ATAR calculators aren't particularly useful for this purpose, and what you should do instead.
How hard is it to predict your ATAR?
Your ATAR isn't a mark or a percentage. It is a rank.
Your ATAR is calculated using your VCE study scores, which are themselves rankings. This makes it very difficult to accurately predict what your final ATAR will be before all of the results have been calculated.
You might have a reasonable idea of how you've performed in your exams, but there are still many factors you can't know in advance.
For example, you don't know exactly how your performance will compare with other students or what your final study scores will be.
There are situations where you might be able to make an educated guess. A teacher with many years of experience might have a sense of the study score range you could be in, for example. Similarly, if an older sibling attended the same school, studied the same subjects and had very similar academic performance, their results might give you some context.
But even these comparisons aren't precise enough to predict your ATAR accurately.
What is an ATAR calculator?
An ATAR calculator is an online tool that allows you to enter estimated VCE study scores and uses an algorithm to produce an estimated ATAR.
There are plenty of these calculators available online, and many claim to be highly accurate.
The problem is that the calculator can only be as useful as the information you put into it.
If you don't know your actual study scores, you're essentially asking the calculator to predict your ATAR based on another prediction.
For example:
If your estimated study scores aren't accurate, your estimated ATAR won't be particularly useful either.
And because your ATAR is a rank rather than a straightforward calculation from your raw marks, there's no way for an online calculator to know exactly what your final ATAR will be before the relevant results are available.
Which ATAR calculator should you use?
None of them.
At least, not if you're using an ATAR calculator because you want to know exactly what ATAR you're going to receive.
An ATAR calculator can be interesting to play around with, but I wouldn't recommend using the number it gives you as though it were a reliable prediction of your actual ATAR.
The more important question isn't:
"What ATAR am I going to get?"
It's:
"What are all the courses I could be happy studying, given the range of ATARs I might receive?"
What should you do instead of using an ATAR calculator?
Rather than spending too much time trying to predict your exact ATAR, use this period to research your course options and build a strong VTAC preference list.
Start with your dream course or courses. If there is a course you'd really love to study, put it on your preference list even if you're worried that your ATAR might not be high enough.
Then look for other options.
These might include:
Similar courses at another university
Related courses that could lead to similar careers
Courses with a lower published selection rank
TAFE or diploma pathways
Courses that could provide a pathway into your preferred course later
Other courses you'd genuinely be happy to study
The aim isn't to create a preference list based entirely on the ATAR you think you're going to get.
Instead, create a preference list that reflects what you actually want to study, while making sure you have realistic alternatives and pathways if your final ATAR is different from what you expected.
What if your ATAR is lower than you expected?
This is another reason not to become too attached to an estimated ATAR.
If your actual ATAR is different from your prediction, you may be able to make changes to your preferences during a VTAC Change of Preference period, depending on the course and the relevant deadlines.
That's why it can be useful to research your alternatives before your results arrive.
You don't need to make every decision based on a predicted number.
Instead, do your research now so that if your ATAR is higher, lower or roughly what you expected, you already have options you're comfortable with.
How should you create your VTAC preference list?
Your VTAC preference list should reflect the order in which you'd actually like to receive an offer.
If your dream course is your first choice, put it first. Don't put it lower simply because you think your ATAR might not be high enough.
Then include other courses that you would genuinely be happy to study, including potential pathways to your preferred course.
Your preference list isn't a prediction of your ATAR. It's a list of what you want to study, in the order you want to study it.
The bottom line: don't let an ATAR calculator make your decisions
Trying to predict your exact ATAR can be tempting when you're waiting for results, but it isn't particularly helpful.
Your ATAR calculator result is based on estimated study scores, and your final ATAR is a ranking that you can't know in advance.
Instead of obsessing over the number, use this time to:
Research your preferred courses.
Include your dream course on your VTAC preference list.
Find courses you'd be genuinely happy to study as alternatives.
Investigate pathway options.
Make sure your preferences are in the order you'd actually like to receive an offer.
Keep researching so you can make informed changes if you need to during Change of Preference.
You don't need to know your exact ATAR to create a great VTAC preference list.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which ATAR calculator is the most accurate?
No ATAR calculator can accurately predict your final ATAR before your official results are released. ATAR calculators generally require you to enter estimated study scores, so the accuracy of the result depends on how accurate those estimates are.
Should I use an ATAR calculator to predict my ATAR?
You can use one as a rough way of exploring different study-score scenarios, but you shouldn't treat the resulting ATAR as a reliable prediction. Your final ATAR is a ranking and depends on your final study scores and how they compare with other students.
Why is it so difficult to predict an ATAR?
An ATAR is a rank rather than a percentage or mark. It is calculated from your study scores, which are also rankings. Before your final results are released, you don't know your exact study scores or how your performance will compare with other students.
Can my teachers predict my ATAR?
An experienced teacher may be able to give you a rough indication of the study-score range you might be heading towards based on your performance, but they can't know your exact final study scores or ATAR in advance.
Should I put my dream course first on my VTAC preference list if I don't think I'll get the ATAR?
Generally, yes. Your VTAC preference list should reflect the order in which you would most like to receive an offer. If your dream course is your first choice, putting it first doesn't disadvantage you if you don't receive the required selection rank.
What should I do if I'm worried my ATAR won't be high enough for my preferred course?
Research other courses and pathways before you receive your results. Look for similar courses, related careers, other institutions and pathway options that you'd be genuinely happy with. That way, you have a plan regardless of your final ATAR.
Can I change my VTAC preferences after I receive my ATAR?
Generally, yes. There’s usually a very short window where you can change your preferences after you receive your ATAR. The rules and deadlines can vary, so always check the current VTAC information for the relevant application year.
Does a higher ATAR always mean I should choose a different course?
No. Your ATAR is an entry rank, not a measure of how suitable a course or career is for you. The best course for you is the one that fits your interests, strengths, goals and future plans—not necessarily the course with the highest ATAR requirement.
Links mentioned:
Work with me: https://www.roadmapeducation.com/services
How are ATARs calculated?: https://www.roadmapeducation.com/podcast/58